Autonomous Transportation Planning?
Transportation Planning is about to be as clay. All of the TOOLS* that we have been using to plan and design transportation systems and modes are soon to be irrelevant (within a few years or sooner) because of the technology of autonomous vehicles and what they will bring as far as 1) safety, 2) efficiency, 3) sustainability, and 4) cost effectiveness. These AV vehicles will win hands down on all these fronts.
There is no way to do "research" with our existing tools, to try and predict with existing tools a pattern that has no basis in the real world.** These are the wrong tools, and it is time for a reinvention of transportation. No household survey will work, because nobody can answer the questions of HOW they will use AV, questions like "how far do you drive to work?” especially when they may not drive to work, but are driven to work within an elaborate transit system that incorporates maximum occupancy, kind of a computerized carpool, and for those that want to pay more, a private transportation vehicle that also works within the autonomous system, optimized for efficiency. The world needs to start planning on how transportation decisions and mode choice are to evolve. We have existing systems in place that are based on human operators. We don't want to waste our investments in infrastructure,m but modifications need to be made. Corridors are in place that can still be used as a dedicated transportation space. With Right of Way dedicated to transportation needs, we are going to have to be creative engineers and planners to determine the solutions on how these areas will transform for vehicles that are autonomous and where no humans personally drive vehicles. There is no need for that really, and the risks we have taken to make it possible have been catastrophic with 40,000 fatalities each year in the USA alone. Now it is time to redesign road corridors and transportation systems, and engineer new solutions using our existing infrastructure, and we need to focus on making it SAFE while meeting the transportation needs of the present and future. In the picture to the right (©NEXT), we can see a certain tech company, NEXT, envisioning what they feel people can do while riding in autonomous transit pods... a great idea on the surface as you envision getting your cup of coffee on the go and sitting down at tables and eating, etc. etc. But this is NOT practical on city streets. And it is not safe. Maybe on an AMTRAK Train, but not on a small vehicle which may be broadsided at any second by a human driver of a regular vehicle. The company spokesman and chief architect of design admits that they are PLANNING on introducing these to cities gradually, so as not to impact existing jobs, such as drivers (obvious foot in the door approach), but in so doing they are introducing a very unsafe mode of travel packaged in a sexy concept, that is highly vulnerable to a vehicular accident. Bodies, food, tables and chairs will fly as shown in this concept. |
There are random SAFETY ISSUES with human drivers. Especially w/ Trucks where AV TECH can improve it.We need to envision Safety FIRST. Vision AV0.
This scenario seems extremely unsafe when mixed with human drivers, and when mixed with other modes of travel such as bikes and peds. Even traveling at low speeds (which hardly has an advantage with regular modes of travel), it is unsafe as shown. These AV Pods will need to BRAKE HARD and often, when pedestrians walk in front of it suddenly You can imagine what will happen to your food while sitting at one of these tables, let alone what will happen to unrestrained passengers, especially riding sideways. Head injuries.
We must envision DEDICATED pathways and grade separations, like TRAINS. |
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*industries like AV pod maintenance companies, customer service in new transit and taxi systems, new companies to specialize in construction relating to AV road systems, new departments at cities and counties filled with staff dedicated to Autonomous Design and Maintenance of AV Roadways, Transformation of Schools to better suit the needs of students and not based on geographical locations where generic offerings are in play and specialty classes non-existent (AV pods acting as mini school buses can transport children to specialty school locations that meet their needs and wants, and where teachers are experts and classes are possibly larger such as like at colleges), Some schools can be completely transformed into specialty locations where topics and classes such as art and music will prevail, and where instruments are shared, other schools can have specialty sports facilities that are shared by more students, and only by the students that are interested in sports..., by opening up transportation, AV transportation, it will be possible to transport students to various classes automatically even if these classes are on different campuses. All possible because of an automated network of AV pods that travel to and from various school campuses. There will be jobs to reinvent the school campuses, jobs to construct new buildings and facilities, jobs to tear down old and unusable school spaces, and cost savings by having more technology in the classrooms, larger classrooms where more interesting specialized presentations are made by highly qualified teachers in the nation on a rotation basis where they can teleconference broadcast to school-based large screen theaters built at certain school campuses, and attended from time to time in addition to regular classes with a local teacher(s). The possibilities are endless, and AV will not be replacing jobs, but creating jobs with the new opportunities that will come through literally CONNECTING PEOPLE, opening up our world to more associations in a larger geographic area, an opportunity that is now elusive because of transportation bottlenecks, especially during peak hours. SO we generally stay near our homes because of these time constraints. |
Can you determine why the concept shown by NEXT, is not a safe concept?This is not to malign NEXT or the myriad of other companies now designing and competing for the AV market. But their focus seems to be mass appeal, market share, fashion, and connectivity to the cloud. No mention of SAFETY and how safety will be affected for good or bad with the introduction of AV onto existing transportation systems with human drivers. It is the contention of PRISM Engineering that this is the PRIMARY PROBLEM to solve first, How to:
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Why most current AV Pod concepts are not safe...
As long as we MIX AV driverless vehicles with vehicles driven by humans on the same roadways, or with PEDS and BIKES who can also make mistakes of judgment, we will still have accidents, maybe even more. The death rates will probably remain the same, and maybe even increase as these smaller AV pods move at low or high speeds on city streets and need to brake suddenly, often, to avoid collisions with BIKES and PEDS and cars, but with poor safety results. It could be death as usual, but involving AV pods too. Even drivers of bikes going low speed at 15 mph have higher risk without head protection during a crash.
Source: transit.dot.gov |
Current Transportation Engineering and Planning needs to evolve to improve Safety. Vision AV0*
PRISM Engineering is envisioning a future transportation system that vastly improves safety while at the same time taking advantage of all the benefits that AV will bring in terms of: CAPACITY, EFFICIENCY, GREEN ENERGY, CONSERVATION, and ECONOMY. |
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VISION AV0*: Near Zero Vehicle Fatalities by year 2022
SOURCE: PRISM ENGINEERING and the United States NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration)
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There is no "one size fits all" when it comes to roadway safety and design. Every city is different. The safety needs of pedestrians and cyclists should always be paramount, and must be studied. The movement of people and goods by vehicle transport is also paramount to our economies, but these can be done safely with Autonomous Vehicles (AV).
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In this process he observed that although China's large cities have a similar amount of traffic and congestion as do large USA cities, their safety situation is 10 times worse than that in the USA as they have 130 fatalities per 100K vehicles on the road each year, compared to only 13 in the USA, which is still pretty bad (40,000 fatalities each year). There are obvious reasons for this statistic in China (numerous vulnerable pedestrians at nearly every intersection, the dangerous location), but it mostly has to do with human drivers and human pedestrians taking huge risks to get around in that transportation system. Cars and PEDS will literally play "chicken" in the crosswalks, and there is no perceived right-of-way, it is first come first served om China. This transportation culture will take decades to mitigate by education and would require enforcement (highway patrol) just like it did in the USA, But with AV implementation, this safety problem can be eliminated by separating the vehicles from the pedestrians and cyclists. It needs to be done as we are making very little progress in safety in the past several decades. 1,200,000 vehicle related deaths each year worldwide, and most heavily in countries where the vast majority do not own or drive cars, but must walk on roads where the other 10% drive and don't do it very well, usually in countries where the population densities are very large, and traffic control is still under development or enforcement.
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PRISM Engineering is actively working on roadway designs and concepts that can help integrate AV with PEDS and Bikes in a meaningful and cost effective way, with the priority to significantly improve safety and achieve VISION AV0
There can be no higher priority in transportation than to strive to improve safety, eliminate the all too frequent daily vehicular fatalities, and calm the traffic situation through AV implementation while boosting transportation productivity and efficiency, even speed of travel in transportation (no more traffic jams or stop and go). If high speed rail can go 250 mph on a dedicated track, AV in all of its varieties of vehicle types, will be able to in dedicated pathways and expressways, travel at high speeds appropriate for a ground vehicle, much like we now enjoy on freeways. With AV roadway design, we will have more "freeways" and will do it with far fewer lanes, shorter headways, and much narrower lanes. Four lanes of travel will be possible within the existing pavement width of even the most narrow two-lane road. Most roads will be repurposed as needed to customize the available ROW for AV and divide the remainder for PEDS walkways, Bike lanes, Parks, and other useful land uses to be decided individually through planning and engineering by local governments throughout the world. |
